WHO’S GOT NEXT? ALEXSIS RODGERS SAYS SHE IS READY TO LEAD RICHMOND, BUT IS RICHMOND READY FOR HER?

A relatively small number of progressive activists dominate RVA’s political social media platforms, and if they could determine elections, Alexsis Rodgers would be the next Mayor of Richmond.

But also, if the bubble that is RVA political social media could determine the outcomes of elections: Bernie Sanders (or Mayor Pete) would be the Democratic Nominee for President, Beto O’Rourke would be Senator of Texas, Andrew Gillum would be Governor of Florida, Stacey Abrams would be Governor of Georgia (and the nominee for VP), and Beyoncé would be the universal Queen of the World. Only one of those previous statements are true (#AllHailQueenBey), Rodgers is hoping to make it two.

Do you know who the most popular player on any football team is? It is the backup quarterback. Why? Because the backup quarterback holds the potential of a better outcome without receiving any judgment from actually doing the job. However, whenever the backup quarterback becomes the starter, the backup’s popularity immediately goes down.

Now, I’m not saying that Alexsis Rodgers is anyone’s backup quarterback. However, I do see some similarities in that Levar Stoney is Richmond’s current Mayor, and therefore, he has the honor of being judged on every play. In many circles, Rodgers has become the popular alternative to Stoney, who a growing number of progressive Richmonders want to see what she can do. Exactly how many Richmonders? That is really unknown. 

Rodgers, 28, a Hanover native and VCU graduate, entered the Mayor’s race later than the other top candidates. She joined the race in June after civil unrest broke out in Richmond and after the RPD shot tear gas into a civil protest at Marcus-David Peters Circle before curfew. Rodgers, who supported and campaigned for Stoney in 2016, said she entered the race because she felt disappointed that Stoney had refused to take on progressive reforms during his term and responded poorly to the call for action to reform the Richmond Police Department. Simply put, Stoney hadn’t lived up to what Rodgers, and other young progressives, thought when she helped him get elected in 2016. I believe this is a significant point because history has a strange way of repeating itself in politics.

I honestly believe that competition makes political campaigns better. I think primaries make the political season better. I think, in a short time, Alexsis Rodgers has made all the candidates in the Mayor’s race better. Stoney has challengers from the right (Gray and Griffin), and with Rodgers in the field, he also has an upstart candidate from the Democratic Party’s progressive wing. Now, how much more progressive is Rodgers than Stoney? My read is not as much as most progressive activists on Twitter tend to think.

THE GOOD

Rodgers has used her background as a policy director and community organizer to center her campaign on policy: Housing policy, Transportation policy, Education policy, Environmental policy, examining the Richmond Police policy; very much like Elizabeth Warren, Rodgers has a policy for just about every issue. She has moved the race forward by introducing progressive policies into the campaign. I think Rodgers’s ability to challenge Stoney (and the rest of the field) on Housing and Transportation policy has moved the needle. Rodgers supporters believe Stoney has introduced policies similar to (and after) Rodgers introduces a plan, a charge that the Stoney campaign vehemently denies.

As someone who has worked on political campaigns, I believe policy roll-outs are more complicated than seeing another candidate’s plan and rushing one out. So, I don’t subscribe to the copy-cat theory, but I believe over the course of this cycle, Rodgers (and progressive grassroots advocates) has made Stoney look at his policy positions and see where there is room for movement. Polices like Marcus Alert and a Citizen Review Board are issues that the grassroots have long championed, and Rodgers has supported. Over time, Stoney has moved to support a version of these policies.

THE BAD

Let’s be honest; Rodgers doesn’t have a lot “BAD” to highlight. This is her first time running for elected office. She is known to Virginia Democratic Party insiders and grassroots organizations, but she is virtually unknown to the majority of Richmond voters.

Rodgers holds progressive ideas popular on Twitter, but she might be ahead of most Richmond voters. Contrary to what grassroots progressives will tell you, there is not that much policy room to the left of Stoney. Rodgers is hoping to win over dismayed Stoney voters (like herself) and progressive voters. I understand the strategy, but I wonder if this is precisely who Alexsis Rodgers is, and, if elected, will she really be able to govern to her progressive base?   

Over the last few years, I’ve grown to know Alexsis (albeit mostly by reputation) as an effective strategist, one that can execute a plan and move the ball forward. She does not allow the perfect to be the enemy of the good. That form of leadership is more pragmatic than ideological. I believe that approach is a good fit for Richmond, but it does not marry well with her most vocal supporters. Contrary to the narrative and lack of traditional Richmond Democratic machine support, Rodgers would be considered a rising political insider by most people’s standards.

THE BIG QUESTION

What happens to Alexsis Rodgers if she wins? Who does she become? If she wins, it will be mainly due to the groundwork of progressive activists. Can she become a Mayor for all of Richmond? And if so, at what cost? Will the majority of her policies look closer to Stoney’s policies than she is letting on? As I alluded to earlier, I do not doubt that her style will be different than Stoney, but will her policies and outcomes?

Rodgers used a lot of anti-Stoney momentum to get on the ballot. Now that she’s gaining momentum, I’ve noticed her campaign staying focused on the issues and her message and staying clear of some of the progressive grassroots organizations that may be too outspoken (and distracting) for her message. I wonder: Is Alexsis Rodgers a version of (candidate) Obama? Obama was all things to all people before he won. After he won, he was disappointing to those who thought he would usher in a wave of progressive policies.

As someone who has worked on campaigns and worked within the government, I will be the first to tell you that campaigning is easier. Saying you’re going to do something is entirely different than doing it. I think Rodgers knows who she is. I’m not exactly convinced that some of her most outspoken supporters understand that she is not them.

Richmond’s grassroots advocates tend to be tougher on elected officials that I consider helpful, or at least sympathetic, to their causes. I’ve been told this dynamic happens because those advocates hold those elected officials accountable to their rhetoric and promises. If Rodgers wins, she too will be held accountable by those same advocates that helped her get into office.

RAPID FIRE

I think a lot of people are wondering: Does Alexsis Rodgers have the experience to be Mayor? I’m not worried about her experience as much as her critics. I think Rodgers’s background as Policy Director for then Lt. Governor Northam, her time at Planned Parenthood, and her current role as Virginia Director of Care in Action gives her a similar experience to where Stoney was four years ago. I believe Stoney had more experience than Rodgers four years ago since he was the previous Secretary of the Commonwealth but not that much. He certainly has more experience now after four years on the job, but Rodgers is not some naïve newbie. No matter who steps into office, the Mayor of Richmond requires a lot of on-the-job-training. Being the Mayor is not a matter of experience as much as it’s a matter of priorities. I think Rodgers understands her priorities. I’m not too worried about her experience.

Rodgers is openly gay, young, and Black. I think that breakdown is a breath of fresh air in politics. Some will be fearful. And I’m not talking about white racists who are suing to keep Confederate statues up on Monument Ave. I’m talking about close-minded, older, Black Richmonders who are not ready for Rodgers to be their leader. It is not lost on me that Rodgers has to be four times exceptional to be considered equal and worthy by some in Richmond politics.

CAN SHE WIN

Not on Election Day. I don’t see Rodgers winning 5 out of 9 on Election Day. I don’t see her winning two districts on Election Day. If she wins one, it will probably be her home district of the 5th, and that is not a given.

Can she push the race to a run-off? Even if the race goes to a run-off, there is no guarantee that Rodgers will be in it. A run-off is between the two leading vote-getters (If no one wins 5 out of 9 on Election Day). Rodgers is gaining on the field, but she’s probably still running 3rd right now behind Gray and Stoney.

Rodgers is running a very impressive campaign. It’s clear to me that she is in the Mayor’s race to win it; she’s not running for 2nd or 3rd place. She is not running to be considered in 2024. She has given this Mayor’s race a shot in the arm by speaking for some who genuinely feel ignored.

If this was a normal election cycle, I can’t help but think of two things:

1. Rodgers would be doing even better because she knows organizing and has the support of grassroots organizations like New Virginia Majority and Richmond for All that would be even more impactful on the ground if we weren’t in a global pandemic.
2. If this were a normal election cycle, Rodgers wouldn’t be running for Mayor.

Alexis Rodgers believes she’s ready to lead Richmond, but is Richmond really ready for her?

Cover art by Kelsea Dvorak, Article art by Jessica Leonard