KNEE JERK REACTION: WHY MAYOR LEVAR STONEY WON

First, I want to thank everyone that followed The Cheats Movement’s coverage of the Richmond Mayor’s race. If you’re new to the site, The Cheats Movement is primarily a Richmond-based hip-hop culture blog. Due to the pandemic and the summer of social justice, I shut down all operations in March, including our bi-weekly radio show on WRIR, to focus on safety, family, and community. The blog returned on June 1st, sharing photos and stories from Richmond’s protest community. The VOICES essay project and the Mayor’s race coverage are only a limited aspect of the Cheats Movement, but it’s areas that we are proud to have shared during this critical time. So, to any new followers: Welcome. I hope you will stay locked-in and stay engaged.

Leading up to election day, I considered the Mayor’s race the most fascinating race in the entire cycle for Richmond voters. As it stands today, Friday, November 6th, I must admit that I was wrong. Why was I wrong? Mayor Levar Stoney put the election in the bag fairly early (all things considered). He cruised to reelection, winning the popular vote (38%) and 6 out of 9 city districts. These numbers represent a bigger number than his margin of victory in 2016. As of right now, they are still counting presidential votes in GA, PA, AZ, and NV, and every minute has been filled with drama. 7th district congresswoman Abigail Spanberger had more than her share of drama with a late surge to overtake her opponent and win her reelection. Compared to those races, there was little drama in the Richmond Mayor’s race.

Why did the results breakdown like this? I must admit that I haven’t done a lot of hard-hitting journalism over the last few days (I’ve been watching Kornacki cam like the rest of you), nor have I dug deep into the numbers as of yet, so here is my “unofficial knee-jerk reaction” to why Mayor Stoney won big.

• Mayor Stoney is a strong politician and a well-liked guy. I know you’re saying that being “well-liked” doesn’t really mean anything when it comes to elections. Shouldn’t elections come down to issues, ideas, record, etc.? My honest answer is maybe it should, but it normally doesn’t. Running for Mayor is not exactly the same as running for class president in high school, but it’s pretty close. Say what you will about Hillary Clinton, on paper, Sec. Clinton was the most prepared person ever to run for the presidency. Why did she lose? A lot of people (for whatever reason) did not like her. If you only read Twitter, Mayor Stoney has been made out to be a very unlikable guy, but district by district that is not the case. A lot of voters that went away from Stoney do so simply because they liked Alexsis Rodgers or Kim Gray better, as opposed to not liking Stoney. Stoney’s likability could have been first on the list or last because being liked can only get you so far, but follow me through the next few points because it all comes together.

• Mayor Stoney focused on his voter base, and they delivered BIG. One of my big questions going into Tuesday’s election was: Who exactly is Levar Stoney’s voter base? The answer was the majority Black districts 6-9. Stoney and his team knew it and invested in turning out those voters. Not only did older Black Richmond deliver for Stoney, but they also ran up the score. Stoney had support from Black churches, fellow elected officials, and the traditional Richmond Democratic turn-out operation, and those allies proved helpful in districts 6 through 9. In addition, Stoney understood the map and gave up the 2nd, 1st, and 4th, dispatching the least amount of effort and resources in those districts. Stoney’s surprise win in the 4th was exactly that, a surprise.

• Money matters! And Stoney had the most. This election was the most expensive mayor’s race in Richmond’s history. And Levar Stoney raised more money than any candidate ever to run for the position. He raised over $1.05 million. These donors were not low-dollar, individual donors that Dems typically highlight. To be fair, some of his donors were low-dollar donors, but most of those donors went to Alexsis Rodgers. But here is the ugly secret about political money: it all counts the same, and having more of it is a political asset. Stoney was able to have highly produced ads run on every platform. Those ads hammered his narrative and strengths and ultimately proved effective with his base.

• Kim Gray ran into a storm of challenges (and challengers) that proved to be too much for her campaign. 2020 produced challenges for every candidate, but those challenges proved too much for Councilwoman Kim Gray to get traction. Gray was hoping for a head-to-head race with Stoney, where she could combine her supporters with the anti-Stoney vote, and mount a challenge. The events of this summer led to Alexsis Rodgers entering the race. Rodgers took Gray’s progressive anti-Stoney vote. And before Alexsis entered the race, Justin Griffin announced his candidacy. Griffin cut into Gray’s support in wealthy, more conservative districts of Richmond, not to mention a lot of voters upset with Stoney about Navy Hill. The addition of Rodgers and Griffin, and Gray’s inability to truly find a message besides “Stoney is the problem” seemed to have led to her underperforming on Tuesday.

• The experience vote broke Stoney’s way (late). While it is hard to believe that anyone was genuinely undecided leading up to the presidential race, I had several talks with Richmonders who were on the fence about if they wanted to change their mayor. Most of those voters ended up voting for Stoney and cited experience and the difficult time we are in as the ultimate deciding factor. Most people give Stoney high marks on his handling of COVID-19 and believe that city services are better under Stoney than under the previous two administrations. The idea of changing to a new mayor scared those voters, who generally believe, despite the summer, the city is moving in the right direction.

• The clock may have run out too soon on a surging Rodgers campaign. The Gray result could be view in one of two ways: Gray underperformed or Rodgers surged ahead of her due to her strong message and platform, likability, and solid organization. I tend to lean with the latter, and it does make me wonder: How would Rodgers have done with more time to connect and the ability to campaign in a more traditional cycle? I think she would have done even better. I’m not saying she would have won the race, but every indicator I followed leads me to conclude that more time would have been good for Rodgers and bad for everyone else.

Richmond is always in an ongoing battle of who we are versus who we want to be. This election emphasized who we are, not where we may be going. While a progressive wave may be coming to Richmond, it’s not here yet. Stoney was the safe choice for mayor. And in this time of instability, a lot like Joe Biden, safe won the day. In the last days of the election, Stoney stressed the message of being a leader for all of Richmond. I think that message landed across diverse districts and helped provide him with a sound victory.

Cover art by Jess Leonard. Hire her for freelance work. She’s awesome!