WHO’S GOT NEXT?: DON’T TRUST LOCAL POLLS. IF RICHMOND POLLS WERE RIGHT IN ’16 WE’D HAVE MAYOR JOE

A note about local polls: DON’T TRUST THEM! I say this as someone that understands that polls are important to framing the narrative about a race. Polls give media and bloggers like me something to talk about, something to frame the upcoming election on, but here is the deal: LOCAL POLLS ARE WRONG.

In 2016, there were two heavily circulated polls: The CNU poll in late September of ’16 (sample size 600) had Fighting Joe Morrissey leading the field by a landside. Levar Stoney who had just entered the race (but listed on the poll finished 5th). The American Strategies poll, in late September of ’16 had Morrissey again in the lead and Stoney 3rd.

As you know now, Stoney won the election, the popular vote, and 5 out of 9 of the council districts needed to win the Mayor’s race on Election Day.

Now, what did the ’16 polls do? Honestly, not much other than place a huge target on Morrissey’s back. Once Morrissey was shown as the leader in the field, there was a whole movement to stop Joe. (Full disclosure: I agreed with the movement on this blog.)

Fast forward to today, there have been two polls floating around, both polls show Mayor Levar Stoney leading the race and slightly ahead in 5 out 9 districts. Now, I don’t trust local polls, the latest poll has the same sample size (around 600) as the ’16 polls.

What do I trust? I trust energy, enthusiasm, and my understanding of Richmonders and Richmond’s voting patterns. (For what it’s worth, that may not do it for you either, ha).

But let’s quickly look at some number from ’16 and how it may play out today.

Stoney won the popular vote (35.64%) and 5 out 9 in ’16 by winning: 3rd (which was really the ball game), 2nd (thanks to VCU), 5th, 6th, 7th.

Jack Berry, who finished second with 33.56% won the 1st and 4th. (These districts have a lot of affluent white Richmonders in them. Their voting patterns are a whole other blog post.)

Morrissey finished third with 21.06, winning the 8th and 9th. (Older Black Richmond voters.)

Now, what a difference 4 years and new candidates make. Councilwoman Kim Gray lives in the 2nd and has carried her district for both School Board and Council. Alexsis Rodgers seems to have all the energy with young voters in the VCU area (they also vote in the second). Stoney carried the 2nd in ’16, my read is that he will not win the 2nd in ’20, but I’ve been wrong before.

My read is the Gray is leading in the Berry won districts of the 1st and the 4th. So, my quick observation #1: if Gray carries the Berry districts and keeps her own, that’s 3 right there.

Stoney finished 2nd to Morrissey in the 8th and the 9th, And I don’t see any candidate taking Stoney’s advantage in those districts. The 8th has the hottest contested City Council race with Amy Wentz challenging incumbent Reva Trammell (Spoiler: This blog strongly supports Wentz and you should too). Wentz has run the best Council race I’ve seen in years. If Trammell holds on and wins, or even wins big, that would bold well for Gray in the 8th. But I see Stoney winning the 8th.

I think Councilman Mike Jones, who is extremely popular in his 9th district, helps Stoney in the 9th. So my quick observation #2: Stoney is leading in the 6th, 7th, 8th, and 9th.

Now, that leaves the 3rd, which was critical in ’16. Stoney beat Berry in the 3rd – 3,754 votes (37 percent) to 3,162 votes (32 percent). Gray will run stronger than Berry in the 3rd, And Rodgers will make some hay in the 3rd, it’s a toss-up but I would lean the 3rd away from Stoney and towards Gray. (This is where I could be hella wrong – I really don’t know).

And finally the 5th, a lot like the 3rd, Stoney won the 5th in ’16. Rodgers lives in the 5th and, I think, the 5th will be her strongest district. Gray will do well in the 5th too. Councilwoman Stephanie Lynch won the 5th in a special election over former Stoney staffer Thad Williamson.  I don’t think that says much regarding the outcome of the Mayor’s race. I think Stoney, Gray, and Rodgers are pretty popular in the 5th.

So, what does all of this mean? Not a damn thing (ha).

I think Stoney has the inside track to winning 5 on Election Day but he will need to figure out either the 3rd or the 5th. If Gray, figures out the 3rd and the 5th, she could be Mayor on Election Day. And let’s be honest, Alexsis Rodgers has shown via forums and debates that she is extremely credible and could be running a movement that surprises everyone. (I would be surprised but not shocked if she gains more votes than pundits predict. She knows how to organize and reach people). Rodgers could surprise all over the city, if she does, watch the hell out.

Of course, a lot of people are saying they see a run-off. I’m not sure about a run-off just yet. Voters seem to break and candidates catch waves. I think someone takes 5 on Election day.

Cover art by the amazing Jessica Leonard – Follow her!!!