WHO’S GOT NEXT? LEVAR STONEY’S REELECTION CAMPAIGN IS A MATTER OF PERSPECTIVE: 1 TERM VS. 1 YEAR.

Who’s Got Next? is a series of articles I’ll be writing about the leading candidates in the upcoming election for Richmond Mayor. The views in this series are my own and how I see the candidates and the state of the race. None of these articles are sponsored or commissioned by any campaign. Please leave your thoughts in the comments.

LET’S FACE IT, Levar Stoney’s reelection bid is a matter of perspective. If his reelection bid is based on his entire first term, Stoney remains the frontrunner and most likely to win on Election Day. If his reelection is based on the last year, he more than likely going to take an L.

With that, lucky for Stoney, it seems that slightly more people are judging his first term in its totality versus the crazy year that is 2020.

So, what do I mean? I’m saying by any traditional metric (and, yes, this is an untraditional election year), Stoney has all the advantages: incumbency, name ID, money, and a record he can run on (whether you like his record or not).

Most people that interact with Stoney seem to like him. He’s taken over an office from two administrations that left office way less popular than when they came in. Stoney may follow that pattern but his drop in support is not nearly as dramatic as his predecessors.

So, what has Stoney done well?

My read is that most RPS families will give Stoney favorable marks on schools. Critics will cite achievement numbers, student expulsions, school infrastructure, and the education compact as problems, and those are all fair and important points, but Stoney seems to do well in factors that can’t be truly measured when it comes to schools. He’ll list record funding (according to him, more than a generation) and the building of three new schools in Black and Brown areas as achievements.  But, a telling sign for me is that a lot of families and educators that I speak with actually feels that he cares about supporting RPS. They feel he got it right with the hire of Superintendent Jason Kamras, and they feel Kamras and Stoney make a team that gives RPS a real chance at long-term improvement. Simply put, that’s really what they want, a leader who cares about their children.

Another area that Stoney seems to receive high marks is being a true cheerleader for the city. This may sound a little silly.  Of course, the Mayor of the city is supposed to be a champion for the city.  BUT, again, Stoney’s predecessors didn’t carry out their roles as Mayor as “pro-city,” they executed their duties in a way that felt as if it was a burden to city residents. I’ll get into this later in the series but based on forum and debate performances my read is that two of the four major candidates for Mayor are campaigning to lead a city that it appears, from each one of their public appearances, that they don’t like very much. Now I know that’s not true, I’m sure those candidates like the city just fine, but they are so busy pointing out their criticisms of Stoney that they rarely state what they like about the city (beyond the surface – this city has so much potential). Alexsis Rodgers, another top-tier candidate in the race, has avoided this narrative by really leaning into her vision for the city. Stoney has remained a fan of Richmond. Believe it or not, being a fan of Richmond translates to residents that interact with him, even those that disagree with him on policy issues.

Finally, on the good side for Stoney (if you can call a global pandemic good), COVID-19 is a crisis that no one could prepare for and Stoney seems to have navigated the crisis just about as well as anyone I’ve seen. As someone who prioritizes public health over business, I understand that the business community has been critical of Stoney for his call to keep Richmond locked down longer, even when Henrico and Chesterfield were opening for business. I give him high marks for following the numbers and understand that Black and Brown communities are being affected much more than others. His handling of the pandemic has been a test of his leadership that he has handled well.  

Now, let’s get into where Stoney’s been bad. And, let’s be clear, the bad could cost him the election.

Stoney has been bad in dealing with the Richmond Police Department (RPD) in the face of civil unrest and protest. The RPD has been awful in dealing with the protest and protestors. We’re on our 3^rd Police Chief since the unrest has started and I’m not sure that this new Police Chief is the “right” man for the job either. RPD attacking protesters with tear gas and other chemical agents is just trash. Arresting protesters that didn’t need to be arrested, breaking up demonstrations at Marcus-David Peters Circle, all trash. RPD not even wearing masks? What is that…just trash. And Stoney hasn’t handled any of this well. The crazy press conference at City Hall in June was bad, the marching with protesters the night after the horrendous tear gas episode: pure theater and trash. Close door recordings of him trying to be an RPD sympathizer, trash. He’s been helped by some aspects of the protestors not using their leverage, advocate in-fighting, and some organizations not reading the situation as well as they could have but, my read, overall, Stoney has done a poor job dealing with RPD since late May.

Now, how did Stoney get in such a bad spot with the grassroots/advocate organizations? I think it goes beyond the last 6 months, I think it’s actually much worse. I think Stoney’s refusal to meet and have a dialogue with grassroots organizations has put him in a bad position. It’s one thing to not agree with advocates and organizations but refusal to meet (which I’m sure he will say, he has offered) but let’s face it – it’s too late now. Stoney’s inability to have honest meetings with progressive grassroots organizations is what gave rise to the Alexsis Rodgers campaign. Note: It’s those same grassroots advocates that, I believed, moved Stoney on issues like Marcus Alert and a Civilian Review Board.

Three issues that I can’t ignore but I will cover in only this “rapid-fire” segment: Monuments, Navy Hill, and Evictions.

Monuments: Stoney is right on Monuments. He moved to remove them (albeit after the people moved first and removed most of them for free). The removal is the real story. The new story that he removed them with a campaign donor that used a shell company to get the city’s money. Guess what? It seems to be true – Stoney is not really denying it – and no one cares outside of the candidates themselves. Stoney has been right on the removal of Confederate monuments and exactly how they were removed can be used as a narrative of corruption but most people don’t think Stoney is corrupt. And if that is a “winning” point for some residents, they weren’t voting for him anyway.

Navy Hill: Proposing Navy Hill caused Stoney to lose some political capital. Navy Hill’s death may be a blessing in disguise for him. If Navy Hill had passed, he would have to be dealing with the lofty proposal delivering on all those promises. And let’s face it, global pandemic, civil unrest, something would have gone wrong. Now, Stoney can go around saying, he tried and he failed. He learned a lesson and doesn’t have to deal with it anymore. Now, did he lose votes by proposing Navy Hill? I’m convinced that the people that were opposed to Navy Hill were going to be opposed to Stoney (and the likes of Dominion and other big donors anyway). I haven’t had many conversations that went, I was with Stoney until he proposed Navy Hill. So, my read is that under a normal election cycle the handling of Navy Hill would be a big issue, maybe a fatal blow. Today, my read is that Navy Hill is a knock but not a major one. Stoney can still carry the charge of believing in the promise of the city. I guess the only tangible results of the entire Navy Hill proposal is the Griffin for Mayor Campaign but that’s about it. 

Evictions: Evictions should be a huge deal in this race. I don’t think it is but it should be. And Stoney doesn’t get good marks for his handling of the eviction crisis in Richmond. Evictions have long been a problem in Richmond before COVID-19 and it’s just gotten worse. Richmond has the second-highest eviction rate in the nation. Advocates have shouted this problem for years and to no avail. The Mayor responded to the crisis recently with the Richmond Eviction Diversion program, but I have to wonder, are these efforts too little – too late?

THE BIG QUESTION?

I have a ton of questions for Mayor Stoney and some of those questions, I hope, will be answered directly when Mayor Stoney comes on The Cheats Movement Podcast (subscribe now). My BIG question would be: How do you change the dynamic between the RPD and advocates who are not going to stop demonstrating after the election? I don’t think the current posture is sustainable for our city and even if you win the election, I can’t see this being a clean slate. How do you plan to address this important issue?

CAN STONEY WIN?

My read is that Stoney is probably in the best position to win 5 out of 9 districts on election day. I’m hearing a lot of talk about a run-off. A run-off happens if no candidates wins 5 out of 9 districts on election day. The run-off would be between the two top vote-getters. My read is that Stoney would not do great in a run-off (especially against Gray). A run-off would be several weeks after election day and requires a different skill-set than a traditional election. The status quo is not good for a run-off and a vote for Stoney is a vote for the status quo.

I think Stoney will do well in the 6th, 7th, and, 9th. The only polls I’ve seen have him favorable in the 8th but if Reva Trammell carries the 8th, those votes may break for her ally and friend Kim Gray. I don’t see a lot of Reva/Stoney voters. The 1st, 2nd, and 4th may be out of reach (Why is it that Stoney does poorly with white Richmonders? Things that make you go hmm?). Which leads me to the 5th. I’m really starting to think the 5th may determine the outcome of this race. If Stoney wins the 5th, he more than likely wins outright. If he loses the 5th (Rodgers home district) It could be a run-off or an outright loss for Stoney.

So, Can Stoney win? Yes. Will he win? It really depends on what you’re voting for, 1 term or 1 year.

The next article will focus on City Councilwoman Kim Gray.

Cover art by the super-talented Kelsea Dvorak – Please follow her on IG. Article art by the amazing Jessica Leonard – Please follow her on IG.