KNEE JERK PREDICTION: RICHMOND WILL NOT GET A CASINO, HENRICO WILL GET AN ARENA — WE ARE WHO WE ARE

Yesterday, I heard the news of a Navy Hill-type proposal landing in Henrico county. The project, presented by a company named GreenCity, is a $2.3 billion development, anchored by a 17,000 seat, state of the art arena, along with other retail opportunities.

The project appears to be structured very similarly to the Navy Hill proposal that faced strong grassroots opposition in Richmond and ultimately failed to move forward with City Council.

Also announced yesterday, were plans to explore further bringing a casino to the city of Richmond.

I don’t know much about the survey floating around regarding the casino, and I’m taking a temporary break from most of my social media interaction, so I haven’t been in the full echo chamber of all that is happening with the casino, but my knee jerk reaction is this: Henrico will get a stadium, Richmond will fight a casino, and probably stall it (at least for a while). A voter referendum for a casino will probably pass, but I think there are other measures in place that will allow the city council to delay a casino for the predictable future.

In the famous words of the late legendary football coach Dennis Green after losing to the heavily favored Chicago Bears by 1 point in 2006, “they are what we thought they were.” A version of that phrase comes to mind when I think of Richmond and Henrico. Very little surprises me about who we are. And the truth is, we are who we are. Henrico may have some grassroots opposition to a large-scale economic development stadium deal, but the opposition will not be as strong as it was in Richmond during the Navy Hill debate. The county faces a different slate of challenges and has a different track record of trust (or indifference) with its residents than Richmond. All of this (and more) is why I think the county will move forward. The county likes “big shiny objects” and hasn’t been as burned in the past by bad economic development deals.

Richmond is also exactly who we know Richmond to be. Given the city’s challenges, I don’t think a casino should be a priority – or is in the best interest of Richmond. With that, I also know the culture of Richmond. The city has earned the reputation of not having the confidence and capability to do large economic projects. This is a reputation that will need to be shed. I don’t believe a casino is the right vehicle to challenge this reputation, but, if my prediction is correct, a casino won’t float by the grassroots community or city council. Richmond will find a way to be Richmond and not move forward.

We are who we are — and that is probably a good thing — for now.

Photo courtesy of GreenCity LLC